AUS SPORT AUSSIE-RULES 28 THE 2003 MOPSY FRASER CUP ROUND FOURTEEN PREVIEW
From: "P A O'Neill" (paoneill@no-spam)
Subject: The 2003 'Mopsy' Fraser Cup - Round Fourteen Preview
Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2003 12:29:52 +1000


Greetings Tipsters
From first to last, that was a hell of a round of football, leaving us with an extraordinarily compressed top six and reducing (this week, anyway) the contenders outide the eight to just two. One of those contenders, Essendon,
had the extreme good fortune to play St Kilda. After a meritorious win over Brisbane, the "Zero Tolerance to Mediocrity" Saints have folded like wet tissues, as if a victory over last season's premier is good enough for them and, hey, why not forfeit the rest of the season and start the end of season trip two months early?

On the evidence of Friday night, they might as well. This was hardly a game between two teams level on six wins, fighting for a spot in the finals -
more like a contest between one team for whom near enough is more than good enough and a team for whom it's never enough. With seven wins, the Bombers remain in the hunt and look likely to scrap it out with Hawthorn and North,
all three teams facing a challenge or two in the next few weeks.

It's that time of the year when a team needs a few champions to stand up and make their presence felt. This may bite a hardworking team like the Roos,
cos their champions are, for the most part, a bit past it. This late in the season, when players are feeling the aches and the exhaustion, the days are colder, grounds heavier, is the time for potential Brownlow medallists poll a few votes.

Collingwood are making their presence felt, and their better players are beginning to live up to their reputations. Their demolition of fellow finals aspirants, the Kangaroos, should have clubs queueing up to hit the warmth of Arnhem Land for a kick-to-kick with the Aboriginal kids next June.
The 4&20s next four matches are all eminently winnable (possibly excepting All-New Competitive Fremantle at the MCG next week) and if they find themselves 12-6 they should be sitting fourth or fifth.

That oughta shake things up a bit. Brisbane failed to play up to expectations again, West Coast were outplayed for most of the match and Port, well, they must have been thinking of the finals. Before yesterday,
Port's percentage was over 40 points better than Geelong's, they'd won ten matches to the Cats' three, they even snatched the lead with two minutes to go. Now they're just one game ahead of hometown rivals, the Crows and can feel the breath of five Interstaters hot on the back of their collective neck.

It's odd that West Coast are the top scoring team without the benefit of a true key forward - or maybe not. Subiaco is made for hard-running midfielders and one of them was the Eagles' top scorer yesterday. It raises the question of whether the Eagles could beat, say, either of last year's Grand Finalists on the MCG in September. Sydney managed to contain them for most of the game but they were still able to score very quickly when they got loose. The Eagles have a crucial reliance upon Gardiner to win the ball for them, and he didn't play yesterday.

Sydney and Fremantle are both performing beyond expectations and while everyone expects them to fall over eventually, they just refuse to do so.
The Crows keep grinding away. They have a focus, a mindset, a sense of steady deliberation as they creep doggedly (so to speak) toward September.
At this point, you'd have to grant them a better chance of making it to that last day in September than you would Port.

Meantime, down the poverty end of the ladder. Richmond have as much chance of making the finals as do St Kilda. They need to win six of their last eight and given that they seem more intent on not losing than they do on winning, it's looking like a big ask. The bottom four have nothing but pride in the jumper to play for. It's doubtful if the Dogs even have that left these days. Carlton, Geelong and Melbourne can at least take pride in being competitive and pinching the occasional game, but the Dogs look on track to take the best booby prize of the lot - the first two picks in the next national draft. And they'd be a fair chance to make a much better fist of it than St Kilda, too.

Cheers Tipsters